ubikcan

November 3, 2008

InTrade Prediction markets: swing states

Filed under: politics, Polls — ubikcan @ 5:30 pm

Here are the figures for the InTrade prediction markets in the battleground or swing states (as of 4:20pm, Monday November 3, 2008). These are the “Ask” prices, what you’d have to pay to buy a share (change since yesterday closing prices in parens). Added: Number following …… is Nov 4, 10am .

Florida Dem: 76.9% (+5.6)….. 77
Florida GOP: 24% (-5.1)…. 25

Virginia Dem: 78.8% (+2.8)….. 88.5
Virginia GOP: 15.0% (-1.0)….. 15.3

N. Carolina Dem: 65.71% (-3.0)….. 64
N. Carolina GOP: 37.0% (+3.1)…. 40.2

Ohio Dem 83.5 (+4.9)….. 83.6
Ohio GOP: 22.3 (-2.3)….. 22.4

Penna Dem: 91% (+3.0)….. 93.9
Penna GOP: 11.0 (-3.8)….. 10.3

Missouri Dem: 55% (+7.1)….. 56.9
Missouri GOP: 50.1 (-2.4)….. 46.8

Indiana Dem: 39.4 (-7.6)….. 36.0
Indiana GOP: 65.5% (+12)….. 66.6

Nevada Dem: 88.8 (+4.0)….. 92.0
Nevada GOP: 14.6 (-4.3)….. 13.7

The biggest gains in the day have been GOP in Indiana and Dems in Missouri.

Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia are predicted easy Obama wins, effectively meaning he’d win the election.

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