October 5, 2008

Still a map-changing election

Filed under: Uncategorized — ubikcan @ 9:08 am

Updated below.

Back in August I noted that this is a “map-changing election,” that is, elections that radically realign the electoral landscape by breaking toward one candidate (Obama in this case).

Despite all that’s happened in the last two months (Palin nomination, the conventions) it still looks like being a map-changing election. It has tightened up a little but still looks a likely Obama victory.

First here are the August numbers (from Pollster.com):

Now here are the numbers as of today, less than one month before the election:

Which position would you rather be in? Obama’s base is 250, and with 270 to win, he has to get just 20 of the swing state electoral votes, McCain has to get 107. This map shows that both Florida and Ohio are in play, but frankly Obama’s doing so well he could very well win without those states.

Remember that in this map above it’s yellow not if it’s tied but if the lead is less than five percent and that Obama is leading in many of them. For example, Ohio (20 EV) Obama is ahead by +2.8%.

Here’s the chart (from OpenLeft):

Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn’t listed, it isn’t that close right now.)

State EV’s Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls Obama Total
Obama Base 253 253
Maine-01 1 +5.0% 0 254
Minnesota 10 49.0% 45.0% +4.0% 3 264
Florida 27 48.6% 45.6% +3.0% 7 291
Ohio 20 48.2% 45.4% +2.8% 5 311
Colorado 9 48.5% 46.0% +2.5% 4 320
Virginia 13 49.0% 46.6% +2.4% 5 333
Nevada 5 48.7% 47.7% +1.0% 3 338
North Carolina 15 46.8% 45.8% +1.0% 4 353
Missouri 11 47.0% 47.7% -0.7% 3 364
Indiana 11 45.7% 47.7% -2.0% 3 375
McCain Base 163 163

(as of Friday, October 3, 2008). How to read this chart: read down the last column, starting with Obama base of 253, adding more EVs with every state (ordered in terms of size of Obama lead).

Update 9/7/08. Pollster.com has it at Dem 296, GOP 163 today (270 required for victory).

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