April 24, 2008

It’s the maps

Filed under: Uncategorized — ubikcan @ 4:12 pm

Daily Kos discusses the maps:

So the pro-Clinton camp is circulating these Electoral-Vote maps to “prove” that Clinton is more “electable” in the fall:

Clinton v McCain:
McCain: 239
Clinton: 289
Ties: 10

Obama v McCain:
McCain: 254
Obama: 269
Ties: 15

I can quibble with the methodology, but I won’t. There’s a larger point to be made using those maps. The author has helpfully divided the states into Strong, Weak, and Barely Dem/GOP. Let’s see how our two candidates fare:

Obama  Clinton Strong Dem 67      74
Weak Dem 144      98
Barely Dem 58     117
Tied 15      10
Barely GOP 76      13
Weak GOP 44      89
Strong GOP 134     137

What’s this tell us?

  • It tells us that Obama’s base is stronger: “strong” and “weak” Dem add up to 172 for Clinton, and 211 for Obama. We have to play less defense.
  • With Obama, McCain’s base is weaker: 226 EVs versus Clinton, and 178 versus Obama.

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