January 31, 2008

Not over yet

Filed under: politics — ubikcan @ 3:21 pm

I think we’ve seen enough interesting developments over the last few days to cause some pause in the rush to crown Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee. It may still happen, in fact it is more likely than not, in my opinion, but there are some serious developments that make it less than automatic.

1. Tightening of the California race. Now, Obama simply has to win this. And he’s closing what I had assumed was a winning margin. The latest (Rasumussen) is to within 3 points!

2. The netroots loves Obama to the tune of 76-11%. This is the liberal base. Now I think this will be a factor not so much should Clinton win, but in helping Obama before the nomination process is complete. That is, it would vote for Clinton, but prefers Obama.

3. He’s a money machine. $32 million last month (January).

But here’s why Obama faces an uphill battle. On Super Tuesday he is only ahead in 3 polls. In the following somewhat weird looking chart by Prof. Franklin at Pollster.com, the darker the circle the more recent the poll. Cali you can see moving toward the Obama column. New York is another big one where you can see some Obama movement. But most are in Hillary’s column.

But Clinton might be more worried by this national polling (if of course the nominations were made nationally, which they aren’t).

November 2007:



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  1. Have the election results to this point strengthened or weakened your confidence in the polls? I feel that elections resist predictability, like a Super Bowl point spread.

    The News Hour has been spending time in states around the country with groups of voters discussing issues that matter to them ahead of the primaries. To be honest, the voters’ concerns are all over the place with respect to issues and candidates, but even though many of the same issues are ignored, in large part, in pre-election debates and campaign coverage, those same voters shoot from hip when they enter the booth.

    As someone who hasn’t been able to pick a winner probably going all the way back to Michael Dukakis, I have to say that I have little faith in voters and even less in polling. What do you think?

    Comment by Mprovise — February 2, 2008 @ 11:54 am

  2. Polls vary… no surprise there. Just saw two polls with widely different results for California, one with Obama far ahead and one with Clinton far ahead (SUSA). Someone will be embarrassed tomorrow.

    here’s a chart of polling performance so far:

    Comment by ubikcan — February 5, 2008 @ 3:25 pm

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