January 20, 2008

Mirror, mirror: who is the strongest GOP candidate?

Filed under: politics — ubikcan @ 8:34 am

I’m going to say John McCain.

If John McCain wins the GOP nomination for president I believe he will represent the toughest task of all the candidates right now. There are effectively five people right now who could be the next president, three GOP and 2 Dems (this doesn’t mean Edwards couldn’t play kingmaker at a brokered convention).

McCain, Huckerbee and Romney. Of the three, both Huckerbee and Romney appeal to a narrower band of the conservative electorate than McCain. If you look at the exit polls from SC yesterday you will see that McCain beat Huckerbee in every sector, except the most conservative Republicans. For the GOP, he is their most centrist candidate (Hillary is the mirror image candidate for the Dems).

SC exits (1655 respondents):


Click for full size

McCain took 2/3 of the voters, or in other words he won ideology by 2:1, and this in a “southern” state. Expect that disparity to be far higher in other states.

Huckerbee and Romney could both put together a winning response of course, but I think McCain would represent the more troubling winner fro the right. McCain came third in NV, but did not campaign there (only Romney and Ron Paul did).

Next up is Florida, a state that Giuliani has consistently led, but which he is now unlikely to win:

Guess why? The rise of McCain. Intrade right now has McCain with twice as much chance of winning (55%) as Giulinai (23%) and Romney (15%).

I’m not saying that McCain will be the GOP nominee, just that he represents the worst option for the Dems. If he doesn’t win Florida after all, then the GOP too may go to the convention without a clear nominee. Two brokered conventions in the same year…!

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  1. I thought that Giuliani was considered the worst option for the Dems.?

    Comment by ChenZhen — January 20, 2008 @ 12:16 pm

  2. Let’s see how mccain does in a Repub only primary.

    Comment by in2thefray — January 20, 2008 @ 12:56 pm

  3. Giulinai? I doubt even his Republican opponents consider him a threat.

    Comment by ubikcan — January 20, 2008 @ 3:02 pm

  4. […] I said 10 days ago when it began to look like McCain would win in Florida and thus the nomination, he will present the toughest opponent for the […]

    Pingback by So is it McCain vs. Clinton? « ubikcan — January 30, 2008 @ 10:02 am

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