January 8, 2008

NH: Obama maybe, but it’s not over yet

Filed under: politics, Polls — ubikcan @ 4:39 pm

An interesting contrary opinion from Jerome:

Gallup has a post-Iowa national poll out. What it shows is on par with Rasmussen’s findings. Basically, that the drop of Clinton is divided among gains by Obama and Edwards:

            Now       Dec
Clinton     33        45
Obama       33        27
Edwards     20        15

With an expected New Hampshire win, its betting-time on which of these scenarios plays out:

“I grant you, one scenario is that this guy (Obama) is a superhuman rocket ship that is never going to come down,” Trippi said as Edwards spoke to a rally in Hampton on Monday night. “The other scenario is that every time you have had one of these rockets go off, every time it becomes clear this guy is about to be the nominee, everybody steps back and reassesses it.”“On Wednesday morning, people will wake up and say, ‘Jeez, this guy (Obama) is going to be our nominee,’” Trippi said. At that point, Trippi said, a closer examination will occur: “The world is going to say, who the hell is this guy?”

Markos thinks it’s the former, calling Obama’s rise of 3 percent in Rasmussen and 6 percent in Gallup, a “surge” and a “tsunami”, and doesn’t see how Clinton recovers. Readig through the congratulatory comments, it reads that “it’s over” has become the conventional wisdom. It’s not over by a long shot.


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