ubikcan

January 8, 2008

NH: brimming over with wrongability

Filed under: Polls, Projections — ubikcan @ 11:20 pm

Damn, did they screw that up. Polls and futures markets alike both kept pushing the story of an Obama win, no, an Obama wipeout.

Larry Johnson asks how could they be so wrong?

I don’t know about you, but I am thoroughly pissed off at the lame, unprofessional conduct of the various networks–MSNBC in particular. They knew that the polls had at least 17% undecided. Rather than simply report that there were a significant number of undecided voters and any projections were not reliable, they danced around like crack addicts celebrating the demise of the Clintons. Hillary is too wimpy. Hillary is too stern. Hillary is too manipulative. Hillary is not manipulative enough.

Hour by hour trading on Obama over the night:

chart1197634802505183602.png

chart1197634802505182395.png

chart1197634802505199167.png

What can we learn from this? That futures markets are overly susceptible to media narratives? Too much herd mentality? (Yet they did get it right that McCain would win.)

Were they almost right (CNN says it was a narrow win)? Not really buying that. The narrative was an easy Obama win.

That they’re too sensitive and lurch back and forwards too much? As evidence, check out the dramatic swing over the last 12 hours in Clinton’s chances of winning the entire nomination:

chart1197634802505200379.png

Back to pre-Iowa levels.

Crowdsourcing: how can we ever trust you again!

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1 Comment »

  1. Again, with too many numbers and bright colors, people can become confused. When CNN began discussing the Poll of Polls to underscore the disparity between the exit polls and the polling from over the weekend, I found my attention waning; at least some consulting firm made off with a small fortune to conduct the polling.

    Still, Obama’s concession speech had a lot more sizzle than Hillary’s victory speech, and even though the race had already been called, I kept waiting for the gap between the two candidates to narrow . . . 7,000 . . . 6,000 . . . 4,000 . . . back to 7,000 . . . click .

    Comment by Mprovise — January 9, 2008 @ 8:13 am


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