January 4, 2008

Iowa: overnights were right

Filed under: politics, Polls — ubikcan @ 11:47 am

Here are the final numbers for the Iowa caucus (Dems):

1,781 of 1,781 districts reporting

Obama 37.58
Edwards 29.75
Clinton 29.47
Richardson 2.11
Biden 0.93
Uncommitted 0.14
Dodd 0.02

(Dodd drops out.)

The previous post had the markets predicting that Obama would win, so they were right on that. (The markets do not predict the final poll numbers, rather they assess likelihood of winning.)

One note: during the day when there’s a kind of “dark side” effect (like the astronauts going behind the dark side of the moon and being out of communication contact) the markets can provide insight into what is happening between the time the polls open and close. We saw yesterday how strongly Obama was trading, although they were continually over-pricing Clinton compared to Edwards. Clinton would have made a good sell yesterday.

The poll of polls at pollster.com were wrong however as they continued to show a Clinton victory through January 2:

Question: which data in the futures markets should we look at? Here I’ve concentrated on closing prices the night before the caucus took place. But the markets have lots of other ways of looking at it, including live trading at any time of the day.

Are overnight closing prices the best indicator to use?


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