ubikcan

January 2, 2008

Obama looking strong

Filed under: politics, Polls — Tags: , — ubikcan @ 10:30 am

Barack Obama has stormed to a lead in the Iowa caucus futures markets. The actual caucus takes place tomorrow.

Trading on the futures markets followed yesterday’s trends, which I noted in my entry at the time. Obama opened strong, over 50 percent, while Clinton opened in the low 30s. Anything over 50 percent is a good sign that the market has confidence in that candidate to win.

It is still a fairly close race. The final Des Moines Register poll gave it to Obama. Here is the last 24 hours trading for Obama up to about 10am this morning:

chart119763480250560188.png

Click for full size.

Update 10:18am: The last trade was around 55%.

In New Hampshire the picture is a little different, with Hillary Clinton trading over 50% and Obama at around 45%. (Edwards is given hardly any chance there, trading in the low single figures.)

Update 2:48pm. Obama still trading in the low 50s. You can sell him at 50 and buy him at about 55 right now.

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