January 1, 2008

Various matters

Filed under: politics, Polls — ubikcan @ 2:42 pm

• Interesting that Iowa does not have exit polls, but entry polls

• In some ways Iowa is only the beginning of the story with crowdsource futures market polling. A caucus can be affected by horse-trading halfway through the process, that is, additional data that can change the situation. It will be interesting to see if the markets can handle this.

• In a close race does it really matter who wins? Surely if the candidates (either Dem or GOP) end up fairly close “calling” the race is a bit premature. The next primary, NH (for Dems only) also needs to be analyzed and we should hold political commentators to this rather than let them prognosticate too much.

• For the record, here is the last Des Moines Register poll, which has previously done very well:

12/27-12/30, 800 LVs, November results in parenthesis
Obama: 32 (28)
Clinton: 25 (25)
Edwards: 24 (23)
Richardson: 6 (9)
Biden: 4 (6)
Dodd: 2 (1)
Kucinich: 1 (1)
Unsure: 6 (7)

It shows a big sudden jump for Obama. (Huckerbee leads Romney in the same poll.)

More analysis of that here (basically saying, “who knows?”).

Meanwhile, here’s the markets for Obama–not at all the same (actually showing a decline for Obama):


Again it raises the question of whether the markets are affected by these polls, or in fact are tapping something a few days ahead of polls (note that Obama did experience a slight uptick to 45% chance of winning yesterday before today’s decline).

Note that Obama is currently [3pm EST] trading at around 48 percent after that close yesterday however:


Click for full size.

This indicates to me that the market has corrected in light of that DMR poll.


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