ubikcan

December 31, 2007

Markets clear: we don’t know

Filed under: politics, Polls — ubikcan @ 12:08 pm

Continued uncertainty in the betting/futures markets indicates how soft the support is for any given candidate. Clinton’s support for instance has fluctuated wildly, experiencing deep declines, recovery and now decline again.

Here’s the last month of her support:

chart119763480250552378.png

Between December 19 and 28 she saw a steep rise that overtook support for Obama, but in the last 3 days her support has gone down by more than 10 percent, while Obama’s has risen.

I’ll post the final numbers for Iowa the night before if I can and compare them to the consensus polling out of pollster.com to see if they differ, and who does a better job. Then we’ll switch to NH for that race.

Here’s the year-ending form for Obama and Edwards:

chart119763480250552396.png

chart119763480250552394.png

As you can see from my side-bar, pollster is showing the Hillary recovery previously documented here, so it will be interesting if they show a decline before the caucuses as that might indicate that the futures markets are a few days (possibly as much as half a week) ahead of polling.

In a volatile market that means they might not get it right on election night.

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