ubikcan

December 14, 2007

TPM ElectionCentral: voting predictions

Filed under: blogs, politics — ubikcan @ 10:20 am

Talking Points Memo, one of the most respected political blogs, has a sister site called ElectionCentral. As you might guess, this covers developments in political campaigns.

You can now get several polling results directly from their homepage. Not only pollster.com stuff, but they’ve added the market trading numbers from Intrade as well–basically what people are buying/predicting.

Intrade now has widgets updated daily. Here’s the one for the Dem nomination:

What’s interesting is that Intrade is showing different results than the polls right now for Iowa (which place Clinton and Obama essentially tied).

Thus people are not acting (Intrade) how they say they will act (Pollster.com). So which do you believe; the money (Intrade) or the opinion? If you believe the money then HC is truly in trouble in Iowa. If you believe the polls, then the price of HC is massively undervalued and is a strong buy.

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