ubikcan

October 3, 2007

Giuliani fantasy map

Filed under: politics — Tags: , — ubikcan @ 7:00 am

There’s a magnificent tradition of fantasy maps that have been made over the years: Tolkien’s Middle Earth, R.L. Stevenson’s Treasure Island, even maps of Atlantis.

I guess Rudy Giuliani wants to join this tradition. Here’s his effort, showing what he thinks will be the outcome of the elections next year if Hillary Clinton wins the Dem nomination. Well done Rudy! Truly a fantasy map for the ages.

But what do the polls actually indicate right now? Here’s the answer, using the same color coding:

Clinton 250 Giuliani 182, Swing 106

As you can see, quite a difference.

OK, funny stuff aside, and remembering that “the only poll that matters is the real poll” etc etc, what’s also interesting apart from this odd claim by the Giuliani campaign at this stage (panic?) is whether we should be measuring these things at the state level at all. Or whether we should poll nationally and apply weightings (known as partisan vote indices or PVI) to each state.

That is, what scale of analysis is the right one in these things? State by state (because of electorial votes) or nationally (because it’s a presidential election)?

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1 Comment »

  1. State by state is the only way. The electoral votes win and the national vote means nothing, as Al Gore will readily tell you. Hillary at this moment has all the populous states.

    Keep in mind that a third party run by a truly pro-life candidate could derail all these hopes. In a poll putting Pat Buchanan in as a generic Republican placeholder, he got 12% by default. If you get a really good candidate in there like Ron Paul, who is both pro-life and anti-war and can get the anti-war Republicans, pro-lifers and has an appeal to independents and some Democrats as well, you’ve got a force to be reckoned with.

    Comment by Libertarian Girl — December 7, 2007 @ 3:09 pm


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